Friday, May 24, 2024

How Patrick Mahomes may solidify his place as the best QB ever


There’ll by no means be one other Tom Brady. No less than, that’s what we thought. It got here after believing there would by no means be one other Joe Montana, who got here following the assertion there would by no means be one other Johnny Unitas — all the way in which again via soccer’s historical past.

It was at all times fated that somebody would finally problem Brady’s mantle, however the truth it’s coming this rapidly is an enormous shock. Now, on the precipice of Tremendous Bowl LVIII we’re staring down the fast-approaching actuality that Patrick Mahomes may be on the verge of solidifying himself within the dialog already.

Mahomes would earn his third Tremendous Bowl ring with a win over the 49ers. It could take his file to 3-1 in Tremendous Bowl video games, along with his solely loss coming by the hands of Brady and the Buccaneers in 2021. Whereas he nonetheless may need lower than half the variety of rings the GOAT does, there’s a really particular case to be made that he’s on his approach to legend standing.

Mahomes vs. Brady, by the numbers

Once we start this comparability we will’t look solely at profession stats, however as an alternative attempt to venture out when Mahomes will go some important Tom Brady milestones. It’s unimaginable to see into the long run, however at age 28 we will safely assume that Mahomes will play for an additional decade, barring main harm. He may resolve to retire sooner than that, he may play longer — however a decade is a strong place to be.

Rings

It’s not a good metric, however Tremendous Bowl rings are finally how a quarterback’s legacy is evaluated when it’s all mentioned and finished. Tom Brady had 22 years as a full-time starter, Mahomes has had 6. With three rings in six years, Mahomes can be on tempo to have eight Tremendous Bowl rings, if we assume he’s capable of sustain his similar fee of championships.

When Tom Brady has completed his sixth season as starter for the Patriots the group he had three rings to his title. He then needed to wait a decade earlier than he’d win No. 4, on the age of 37.

The concept Mahomes would be capable to hold successful as he has may be very tough to venture. Not like Brady, who obtained to develop alongside Invoice Belichick for almost all of his profession, Mahomes will assuredly must adapt to Andy Reid retiring earlier than his taking part in days are over. This might tremendously disrupt his likelihood for successful, until Kansas Metropolis has an unimaginable succession plan.

Uncooked stats

It’s right here the place Mahomes blows Brady out of the water. I do know it’s a little bit of an unfair comparability contemplating how a lot the league has emphazied passing lately, but it surely’s a little bit of an issue of Brady’s personal making, since most of the quarterback-friendly guidelines right this moment have been a direct impact of Brady’s play.

If we extrapolate out Mahomes to Brady’s profession size, right here’s what we get

Passing yards
Brady: 89,214
Mahomes: 99,194

Passing TDs
Brady: 649
Mahomes: 764

Interceptions
Brady: 212
Mahomes: 220

Completion proportion
Brady: 64.3
Mahomes: 66.5

Whole win file
Brady: 251-82
Mahomes: 258-75

Particular person awards

These play an essential function in evaluating a participant towards the gamers of the period. In the case of Tom Brady he was the one most dominant power in soccer for nearly 30 years. There are just a few key markers we will use outdoors of Tremendous Bowl rings to take a look at the place a quarterback ranked inside his period.

As soon as once more, we’ll be extrapolating out Mahomes’ tempo to Brady’s profession size to get an thought of the place they stand.

Professional Bowl berths
Brady: 15
Mahomes: 21

All-Professional groups
Brady: 6
Mahomes: 10

AP MVP
Brady: 3
Mahomes: 7

Offensive Participant of the Yr
Brady: 2
Mahomes: 3

Tremendous Bowl MVP
Brady: 5
Mahomes: 7

This might sound clear, however there’s an enormous “however” right here

Extrapolating out efficiency is a really flawed course of, as a result of it assumes {that a} metric is attainable within the first place. What Tom Brady did over the course of his profession, for so long as he did it, is unimaginable to grasp.

The person performed elite NFL soccer on the sport’s most tough place each season for 23 YEARS. Brady was nonetheless throwing for over 4,500 yards at age 45 — and that’s one thing no one has ever finished earlier than. That makes it very disingenuous to easily map out their profession and say they’re on par.

There’s additionally a matter of play fashion. Mahomes’ method to the quarterback place naturally requires an even bigger arm, which can decay over time. It stays to be seen whether or not he’ll capable of adapt to having a discount in arm power in his 30s the way in which Brady did. It’s potential, but additionally not a given.

That mentioned, Mahomes is unquestionably on observe to take over as GOAT

The subsequent few years are important, but when Mahomes wins three Tremendous Bowl rings in six years then he’s simply on tempo to maintain dominating. For a lot of Brady’s profession he was in a one-two battle for the title of “finest QB” with Peyton Manning, which he finally received.

In the case of Patrick Mahomes there’s no comparability. He’s the No. 1 yearly, he sits alone within the “S tier.” Till somebody reveals they’re even near his means it’s a dialog with out a starter.

Whereas it may be somewhat early to crown Mahomes as the brand new GOAT, he’s on tempo to solidify this if he can sustain his manufacturing for the subsequent 5-7 years, successful extra rings within the course of.

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