Friday, May 24, 2024

Neglect the moneyline, take a look at these prop bets


That is the Tremendous Bowl made for playing. The American Gaming Affiliation estimates that Individuals will wager a mixed $23.1 billion on the Massive Recreation this yr, up from $16 billion year-over-year. Whether or not it’s your first time betting on the massive recreation otherwise you’re a seasoned vet, you don’t need to be putting bets blindly. Take it from somebody who’s already put collectively intensive statistical deep-dives on this matchup: The percentages could be in your favor on this Sunday evening. Put in your finest Danny Ocean impression, and prepare to rob Vegas blind this weekend with one of the best bets of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.

Reba McEntire Nationwide Anthem 90.5 seconds

Take the underneath

I stated in our “Most Outlandish Prop Bets” column earlier this week that I believed it was ridiculous for McEntire to go underneath 90 seconds on the Anthem. It’s a breakneck tempo that solely marching bands play at. Singers savor the second. They soak all of it in, and add little vocal thrives. Then I noticed this playlist compiled by Reba(‘s YouTube channel) herself. It makes up a handful of her most notable former runs on the Anthem. I used to be blown away. She is EFFICIENT. Nonetheless will get the vocal aptitude in, adlibs a bit, and nonetheless will get in properly underneath the wire. A few of her runs through the World Collection nearly end within the 70s. Her splits are loopy, hitting “rocket’s pink glare” routinely across the 35-second mark. I’ll add she will get slower with age – her anthem on the 1974 Rodeo was a breakneck 72 seconds, whereas her anthem at a 1999 Cowboys recreation was precisely 90 seconds. If we’re being actually sharp, betting underneath 90 seconds might be chopping it shut, however any books the place you see a 1:35, or 1:40 line, hammer the underneath.

Patrick Mahomes 260.5 Passing Yards

Take the underneath

Mahomes is thought for his unimaginable achievements by way of the air. This nearly appears like a rat line. Mahomes has thrown underneath 260 yards in 37 of his 113 profession video games, playoffs or common season. Meaning we place this guess on any recreation at random in Mahomes’ profession, we lose simply over two out of each thrice. Of these 37, although, 12 have occurred this season, with one coming within the playoffs in opposition to Buffalo. Mahomes additionally threw for simply 182 yards throughout final yr’s Tremendous Bowl in opposition to Philadelphia. The Chiefs quarterback doesn’t usually over-produce in Tremendous Bowls, both. With a lot better offenses than this one, Mahomes has by no means damaged 286 passing yards in a Tremendous Bowl. This can be a quarterback that may do something to win. That features taking a backseat to the run recreation, or successful together with his personal legs to reap the benefits of the 49ers. There are related sharp traces on Purdy for yardage and go try totals, however I feel traces are going to be way more favorable within the Mahomes division regardless of the same recreation plans.

Christian McCaffrey 128.5 Speeding + Receiving Yards

Take the over

I feel it’s protected to say that everybody who has performed an oz. of analysis into this recreation is aware of Christian McCaffrey goes to play an enormous half in San Francisco’s recreation plan. The Chiefs have been abysmal stopping the run this season, and the 49ers are probably the most run-heavy groups in soccer. This can be a completely set line. McCaffrey has eclipsed 128 all-purpose yards precisely 16 instances within the 32 video games he has performed for San Francisco. That is, nonetheless, a little bit of a hedge on how I feel McCaffrey will get these yards. The Chiefs are among the finest groups within the league at protecting up routes beneath. Of the 354 routes McCaffrey ran in 2023, 173 of them have been both flats, shallows, or screens, based on thirty third Workforce’s The Edge. He runs the overwhelming majority of his routes (234 of 354) out of the backfield, which means they’re extra more likely to find yourself within the short-yardage blanket the Chiefs cowl so properly. The actual juice on McCaffrey lies in his alternate speeding prop. Whilst you may choose McCaffrey getting over 128 all-purpose yards at -120, you will get his over 115 alternate speeding prop at +205. I’m too large a coward, however possibly you’re not.

Rashee Rice 6.5 Receptions

Take the over

The Chiefs rookie has been the guts and soul of this Chiefs receiving corps, working his catch totals up dramatically over the course of the season. Since Week 11 of the common season, Rice has solely fallen wanting the 6.5 receptions line twice in 9 video games – as soon as within the Week 17 matchup in opposition to the Bengals, and as soon as within the Divisional Spherical matchup in opposition to the Payments. This barely conflicts with my perception that the Chiefs may have a extra run-focused, methodical gameplan heading into Sunday, and Rice will certainly have his fingers full most definitely drawing Charvarius Ward as his fundamental task, however should you assume that is going to be an in depth recreation in any respect, Rice is the man to guess on. Plus, his odds for six.5 catches are way more pleasant (-115 at DraftKings) than Travis Kelce’s to catch the identical passes (-166 at DraftKings).

Brock Purdy 0.5 Interceptions

Take the over

Brock Purdy is an effective quarterback, however he’s nonetheless younger and somewhat frantic. He’s superior within the Shanahan system as a result of he’s keen to take photographs downfield and make some big-risk throws. Purdy’s additionally knocked as a result of he makes some big-risk throws at instances when he completely shouldn’t. Purdy is nice at escaping strain, however he makes extra turnover-worthy throws when pressured. The one manner the Chiefs are going to remain on this recreation defensively is that if they pressure Purdy to make errors. Kansas Metropolis will get one blunder out of Purdy on Sunday.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19.5 Receiving Yards

Take the over

We touched on how loopy this line is within the “Outlandish Props” column, so I received’t go lengthy right here, however Marquez Valdes-Scanting is the one semi-functional Chiefs receiver not named Rashee Rice. He’s additionally Kansas Metropolis’s finest big-play risk. Valdes-Scantling averages 18.38 yards per reception in his playoff profession. This yr alone, MVS is placing up 25 yards per reception within the postseason. That is nearly solely a guess on “Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch one go within the Tremendous Bowl?” Should you’re bullish on that, the road for his receiving prop can also be set at 1.5 receptions.

Javon Hargrave 0.25 sacks

Take the over

Nick Bosa goes to be the massive level of deal with the 49ers go rush, however the impression goes to be felt within the inside. With Joe Thuney struggling a torn pectoral, the Chiefs will probably be operating Nick Allegretti at guard. Hargrave and Arik Armstead have been wonderful on the inside go rush this yr, and getting strain with out blitzing is a key think about stopping the Mahomes offense. You’ll be able to choose both of the 49ers defensive tackles to get a sack, I simply selected Hargrave off sack complete and playoff efficiency.

First TD scored

Choose Deebo Samuel

Perhaps it’s the Jameson Williams trickery burned into my mind from the NFC Championship, however I simply have a sense about this one. I’m going into the primary landing prop like this: Of all of the doable permutations and mixtures of a landing taking place on this recreation, who has probably the most alternative to attain? McCaffrey as a dual-threat participant checks out right here, however I like Deebo on the greater odds. Samuel is likely one of the most frequent tackle-breakers within the NFL, leads the 49ers in yards after the catch, and serves as a runner and a receiver. I just like the possibilities of San Francisco working one thing round Samuel’s hyper-varied skillset on the opening drive to attain.

Will There Be A Scorigami?

No

For the uninitiated, a Scorigami is a time period invented by Jon Bois used to explain an entirely distinctive rating that’s by no means occurred earlier than in an NFL recreation. I need to guess sure on this. Scorigamis occur within the Tremendous Bowl as a result of an uptick in threat, the elevated desperation to attain, combined in with a little bit of bizarre luck. That being stated, should you look on the database of all scorigamis, we don’t have a ton of openings to work with. We’re anticipating this to be a defensive recreation, so if we hypothetically capped the successful group’s level complete at 31 (4 customary landing/extra-point combos and a subject purpose), our home windows are bleak. 11 is a risk to look out for – you may image a group being held to a subject purpose early, then scoring and going for 2 late. The numbers it traces up with, although, (12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 29) are harder to check. 8 has barely fewer openings underneath successful scores simply as obtuse. The others would simply be one-off scores like 25-18, 18-9. To guess on Sure at +2000 just about comes all the way down to praying for a 20-11 consequence, or begging for subject targets and safeties.

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