Friday, May 24, 2024

Overlook the moneyline, take a look at these prop bets

That is the Tremendous Bowl made for playing. The American Gaming Affiliation estimates that Individuals will wager a mixed $23.1 billion on the Large Recreation this yr, up from $16 billion year-over-year. Whether or not it’s your first time betting on the large sport otherwise you’re a seasoned vet, you don’t wish to be putting bets blindly. Take it from somebody who’s already put collectively intensive statistical deep-dives on this matchup: The percentages could be in your favor on this Sunday evening. Put in your greatest Danny Ocean impression, and prepare to rob Vegas blind this weekend with one of the best bets of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.

Reba McEntire Nationwide Anthem 90.5 seconds

Take the underneath

I mentioned in our “Most Outlandish Prop Bets” column earlier this week that I assumed it was ridiculous for McEntire to go underneath 90 seconds on the Anthem. It’s a breakneck tempo that solely marching bands play at. Singers savor the second. They soak all of it in, and add little vocal thrives. Then I noticed this playlist compiled by Reba(‘s YouTube channel) herself. It makes up a handful of her most notable former runs on the Anthem. I used to be blown away. She is EFFICIENT. Nonetheless will get the vocal aptitude in, adlibs a bit, and nonetheless will get in properly underneath the wire. A few of her runs throughout the World Collection nearly end within the 70s. Her splits are loopy, hitting “rocket’s pink glare” routinely across the 35-second mark. I’ll add she will get slower with age – her anthem on the 1974 Rodeo was a breakneck 72 seconds, whereas her anthem at a 1999 Cowboys sport was precisely 90 seconds. If we’re being actually sharp, betting underneath 90 seconds might be slicing it shut, however any books the place you see a 1:35, or 1:40 line, hammer the underneath.

Patrick Mahomes 260.5 Passing Yards

Take the underneath

Mahomes is understood for his unimaginable achievements by way of the air. This nearly appears like a rat line. Mahomes has thrown underneath 260 yards in 37 of his 113 profession video games, playoffs or common season. Which means we place this guess on any sport at random in Mahomes’ profession, we lose simply over two out of each 3 times. Of these 37, although, 12 have occurred this season, with one coming within the playoffs in opposition to Buffalo. Mahomes additionally threw for simply 182 yards throughout final yr’s Tremendous Bowl in opposition to Philadelphia. The Chiefs quarterback doesn’t sometimes over-produce in Tremendous Bowls, both. With significantly better offenses than this one, Mahomes has by no means damaged 286 passing yards in a Tremendous Bowl. It is a quarterback that can do something to win. That features taking a backseat to the run sport, or profitable along with his personal legs to benefit from the 49ers. There are related sharp strains on Purdy for yardage and cross try totals, however I believe strains are going to be rather more favorable within the Mahomes division regardless of the same sport plans.

Christian McCaffrey 128.5 Dashing + Receiving Yards

Take the over

I believe it’s protected to say that everybody who has carried out an oz. of analysis into this sport is aware of Christian McCaffrey goes to play an enormous half in San Francisco’s sport plan. The Chiefs have been abysmal stopping the run this season, and the 49ers are one of the crucial run-heavy groups in soccer. It is a completely set line. McCaffrey has eclipsed 128 all-purpose yards precisely 16 instances within the 32 video games he has performed for San Francisco. That is, nonetheless, a little bit of a hedge on how I believe McCaffrey will get these yards. The Chiefs are the most effective groups within the league at masking up routes beneath. Of the 354 routes McCaffrey ran in 2023, 173 of them have been both flats, shallows, or screens, in accordance with thirty third Group’s The Edge. He runs the overwhelming majority of his routes (234 of 354) out of the backfield, that means they’re extra prone to find yourself within the short-yardage blanket the Chiefs cowl so properly. The true juice on McCaffrey lies in his alternate dashing prop. Whilst you may choose McCaffrey getting over 128 all-purpose yards at -120, you will get his over 115 alternate dashing prop at +205. I’m too huge a coward, however possibly you’re not.

Rashee Rice 6.5 Receptions

Take the over

The Chiefs rookie has been the center and soul of this Chiefs receiving corps, working his catch totals up dramatically over the course of the season. Since Week 11 of the common season, Rice has solely fallen in need of the 6.5 receptions line twice in 9 video games – as soon as within the Week 17 matchup in opposition to the Bengals, and as soon as within the Divisional Spherical matchup in opposition to the Payments. This barely conflicts with my perception that the Chiefs could have a extra run-focused, methodical gameplan heading into Sunday, and Rice will certainly have his arms full most definitely drawing Charvarius Ward as his principal project, however when you assume that is going to be an in depth sport in any respect, Rice is the man to guess on. Plus, his odds for six.5 catches are rather more pleasant (-115 at DraftKings) than Travis Kelce’s to catch the identical passes (-166 at DraftKings).

Brock Purdy 0.5 Interceptions

Take the over

Brock Purdy is an efficient quarterback, however he’s nonetheless younger and a bit frantic. He’s superior within the Shanahan system as a result of he’s keen to take pictures downfield and make some big-risk throws. Purdy’s additionally knocked as a result of he makes some big-risk throws at instances when he completely shouldn’t. Purdy is nice at escaping strain, however he makes extra turnover-worthy throws when pressured. The one approach the Chiefs are going to remain on this sport defensively is that if they pressure Purdy to make errors. Kansas Metropolis will get one blunder out of Purdy on Sunday.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19.5 Receiving Yards

Take the over

We touched on how loopy this line is within the “Outlandish Props” column, so I received’t go lengthy right here, however Marquez Valdes-Scanting is the one semi-functional Chiefs receiver not named Rashee Rice. He’s additionally Kansas Metropolis’s greatest big-play menace. Valdes-Scantling averages 18.38 yards per reception in his playoff profession. This yr alone, MVS is placing up 25 yards per reception within the postseason. That is nearly completely a guess on “Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch one cross within the Tremendous Bowl?” For those who’re bullish on that, the road for his receiving prop can be set at 1.5 receptions.

Javon Hargrave 0.25 sacks

Take the over

Nick Bosa goes to be the large level of give attention to the 49ers cross rush, however the affect goes to be felt within the inside. With Joe Thuney struggling a torn pectoral, the Chiefs will probably be working Nick Allegretti at guard. Hargrave and Arik Armstead have been wonderful on the inside cross rush this yr, and getting strain with out blitzing is a key think about stopping the Mahomes offense. You may choose both of the 49ers defensive tackles to get a sack, I simply selected Hargrave off sack complete and playoff efficiency.

First TD scored

Decide Deebo Samuel

Perhaps it’s the Jameson Williams trickery burned into my mind from the NFC Championship, however I simply have a sense about this one. I’m going into the primary landing prop like this: Of all of the attainable permutations and mixtures of a landing taking place on this sport, who has essentially the most alternative to attain? McCaffrey as a dual-threat participant checks out right here, however I like Deebo on the greater odds. Samuel is without doubt one of the most frequent tackle-breakers within the NFL, leads the 49ers in yards after the catch, and serves as a runner and a receiver. I just like the probabilities of San Francisco working one thing round Samuel’s hyper-varied skillset on the opening drive to attain.

Will There Be A Scorigami?


For the uninitiated, a Scorigami is a time period invented by Jon Bois used to explain an entirely distinctive rating that’s by no means occurred earlier than in an NFL sport. I wish to guess sure on this. Scorigamis occur within the Tremendous Bowl as a result of an uptick in danger, the elevated desperation to attain, blended in with a little bit of bizarre luck. That being mentioned, when you look on the database of all scorigamis, we don’t have a ton of openings to work with. We’re anticipating this to be a defensive sport, so if we hypothetically capped the profitable staff’s level complete at 31 (4 customary landing/extra-point combos and a area aim), our home windows are bleak. 11 is a risk to look out for – you might image a staff being held to a area aim early, then scoring and going for 2 late. The numbers it strains up with, although, (12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 29) are harder to check. 8 has barely fewer openings underneath profitable scores simply as obtuse. The others would simply be one-off scores like 25-18, 18-9. To guess on Sure at +2000 just about comes right down to praying for a 20-11 final result, or begging for area targets and safeties.

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